For the past 21 months, the northeastern state of Manipur has been suffering from ethnic violence. President’s Rule has now been imposed in the state, marking the eleventh time since 1951. This situation arose after Chief Minister N. Biren Singh submitted his resignation. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to elect a new leader within the given time frame, and no assembly session was convened in the past six months. Meanwhile, neighboring Myanmar is facing an internal war, with its Rakhine province falling under the control of the insurgent Arakan Army. Given these circumstances, imposing President’s Rule in this volatile border state is seen as a necessary and appropriate step.
Now, there is an opportunity to restore peace in Manipur. If needed, the deployment of security forces can be increased. To control the situation, the first priority should be to re-establish communication and dialogue between the representatives of the Kuki and Meitei communities, who are committed to peace. Secondly, disarming both communities is a major challenge. Many weapons were looted from security forces, and retrieving them is crucial. Those responsible for looting must face legal action. Only after law and order are restored can the political process be re-established, leading to new elections. For this, creating a fear-free environment is essential. Additionally, restoring mutual trust between both communities and the administration is crucial, as mistrust has been a major cause of the unrest. The administration must be transparent and accountable.
In May 2023, ethnic clashes in Manipur resulted in the deaths of around 250 people. About 60,000 individuals were displaced and forced into relief camps. So far, 625 people have been arrested, and over 12,000 FIRs have been registered. However, only 3,000 of the looted weapons have been recovered. The conflict began when the Kuki and Naga communities protested in the hill districts against granting Scheduled Tribe status to the Meitei community. These tribal groups believe that such recognition would increase the Meitei community's dominance over society and government.
To prevent any disruptions to the BJP’s recent electoral victory celebrations in Delhi, the party’s senior leadership saw Biren Singh’s resignation as a strategic move. After publicly apologizing for the violence and displacement in Manipur, he stepped down after more than a month. However, his resignation was not voluntary; he was under immense pressure due to leaked audio recordings allegedly revealing his role in inciting ethnic violence. The Supreme Court has sent this tape for forensic examination, and the findings will be submitted in a sealed report.
Opposition parties in Manipur had been campaigning for Biren Singh’s removal, and even some BJP legislators seemed to support this move. Given the serious allegations against him, his resignation appears to be an escape route rather than an act of accountability. However, the image of the government and the party has already suffered significant damage, and his resignation has come too late to repair it.
The key question now is whether a change in leadership will alter the ground reality. Can the new leadership bridge the deepening divide between the Meitei and Kuki communities? The people of Manipur are eagerly awaiting justice and peace. In this situation, the central government’s primary responsibility is to regain public trust, ensuring peace and harmony in the state.
On the other hand, the postponement of the budget session has raised concerns about the extension of President’s Rule. Given the high level of mistrust between the two major communities, a quick resolution seems unlikely. While the Kuki community is demanding a separate administrative structure, the Meitei community strongly opposes it. However, restoring peace should be the top priority so that displaced individuals can return home with faith in the rule of law. The recovery of looted weapons from both communities remains a major concern. Security forces and police have also faced accusations of bias, which they must address to regain credibility.
Whoever takes charge after Biren Singh will have a tough task ahead. The pressing question is whether the state assembly elections, scheduled within a year, will be held on time. Given the current situation, a fair and sensitive administration is needed to heal the wounds of the affected people. Although Biren Singh resigned due to political pressure, his departure may improve prospects for peace, especially for those who accused him of partiality.
Since the BJP has failed to appoint a new Chief Minister and no assembly session has been held in six months, the assembly has been suspended, and President’s Rule has been imposed. However, despite the Union Home Ministry taking charge of law and order and deploying a large number of central forces since mid-2023, the ethnic conflict that began in May 2023 shows no signs of abating.
With President’s Rule in place, the central government now has an opportunity to de-escalate tensions. It must address urgent issues such as the displacement of over 60,000 people, many of whom are still struggling with trauma and loss of livelihood. Reports indicate that the government needs to act swiftly to rehabilitate them.
President’s Rule also opens the door for dialogue between representatives of both communities, particularly those committed to peace. Lawmakers can also play a role in this reconciliation process.
Another major concern is the militarization of civilian society. Armed groups have formed within both communities, and individuals armed with looted police weapons call themselves "village volunteers." Previous attempts to recover these weapons and punish the looters have been largely unsuccessful. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of insurgents fighting against the Indian state or participating in Myanmar’s civil war.
A coordinated effort involving the government, armed forces, and civil society is necessary to identify and disarm these "village volunteers" while simultaneously addressing the insurgent groups. Biren Singh’s administration failed in this regard due to its perceived bias and its inclination to demonize the entire Kuki-Zo community, which fueled complete distrust.
To break away from this legacy of bias, the government must take decisive steps, and the Home Ministry must work on a war footing to restore peace. Given the failure of the legislature and its deep-seated ethnic divisions, ideally, immediate assembly elections should be held. However, before elections, the atmosphere of fear and resistance from violent groups must be eliminated, and the rule of law must be restored.
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*Journalist
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