Cost pressures up, 22-month high inflation expectation: IIM-A survey

By Our Representative

The Indian Institute of Management-Ahmdabad's latest Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES) has said that the cost perceptions data based on a survey of 1,000 business executives "indicate increase in cost pressures."

"The percentage of firms perceiving significant cost increase (over 6% to 10%) in April 2024 has increased sharply to 21%, from around 16% reported in March 2024", it says, adding, "The percentage of firms reporting moderate cost increase (3.1% to 6.0%), on the other hand, has declined to 26% in April 2024, from 29% reported in March 2024."

At the same time, it asserts, The sales expectations scenario during February-April 2024 remained similar. Around 18-19% of the firms are reporting ‘somewhat greater than normal’," adding, "About 55% of the firms are still reporting ‘somewhat less than normal’ or lower sales during March-April 2024 ."

The survey further reveals that "around 48% of the firms in April 2024 are reporting profit margins to be ‘about normal’ or greater – up from 42% reported in March 2024", adding, "Overall, the profit margins expectations have improved in April 2024."

The BIES, conducted by the Misra Centre for Financial Markets and Economy, IIMA, claims to provide ways to examine the amount of slack in the economy by polling a panel of business leaders about their inflation expectations in the short and medium term.

Asking questions about year-ahead cost expectations and the factors influencing price changes, such as profit, sales levels, etc. the survey is considered to be "unique" as it goes "straight to businesses -- the price setters -- rather than to consumers or households, to understand their expectations of the price level changes."

An IIM-A note says, "One major advantage of BIES is that one can get a probabilistic assessment of inflation expectations and thus get a measure of uncertainty. It also provides an indirect assessment of overall demand condition of the economy. Results of this survey are, therefore, useful in understanding the inflation expectations of businesses and complement other macro data required for policy making."

It notes, "One year ahead business inflation expectation, as estimated from the mean of individual probability distribution of unit cost increase, has increased sharply by 29 basis points to 4.84% in April 2024 from 4.55% reported in March 2024. Firms’ inflation expectation in the current round is the highest in the past 22 months."

Comments

70,000 migrants, sold on Canadian dream, face uncertain future: Canada reinvents the xenophobic wheel

By Saurav Sarkar* Bikram Singh is running out of time on his post-study work visa in Canada. Singh is one of about 70,000 migrants who were sold on the Canadian dream of eventually making the country their home but now face an uncertain future with their work permits set to expire by December 2024. They came from places like India, China, and the Philippines, and sold their land and belongings in their home countries, took out loans, or made other enormous commitments to get themselves to Canada.

Kerala government data implicates the Covid vaccines for excess deaths

By Bhaskaran Raman* On 03 Dec 2024, Mr Unnikrishnan of the Indian Express had written an article titled: “Kerala govt data busts vaccine death myth; no rise in mortality post-Covid”. It claims “no significant change in the death rate in the 35-44 age group between 2019 and 2023”. However, the claim is obviously wrong, even to a casual observer, as per the same data which the article presents, as explained below.

PM-JUGA: Support to states and gram sabhas for the FRA implementation and preparation and execution of CFR management plan

By Dr. Manohar Chauhan* (Over the period, under 275(1), Ministry of Tribal Affairs has provided fund to the states for FRA implementation. Besides, some states like Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra allocated special fund for FRA implementation. Now PM-JUDA under “Dharti Aaba Janjatiya Gram Utkarsh Abhiyan(DAJGUA) lunched by Prime Minister on 2nd October 2024 will not only be the major source of funding from MoTA to the States/UTs, but also will be the major support to the Gram sabha for the preparation and execution of CFR management Plan).

Operation Kagar represents Indian state's intensified attempt to extinguish Maoism: Resistance continues

By Harsh Thakor Operation Kagar represents the Indian state's intensified attempt to extinguish Maoism, which claims to embody the struggles and aspirations of Adivasis. Criminalized by the state, the Maoists have been portrayed as a threat, with Operation Kagar deploying strategies that jeopardize their activities. This operation weaves together economic, cultural, and political motives, allegedly with drone attacks on Adivasi homes.

How Amit Shah's statement on Ambedkar reflects frustration of those uncomfortable with Dalit assertion, empowerment

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* Dr. B.R. Ambedkar remains the liberator and emancipator of India’s oppressed communities. However, attempts to box him between two Brahmanical political parties betray a superficial and self-serving understanding of his legacy. The statement by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in the Rajya Sabha was highly objectionable, reflecting the frustration of those uncomfortable with Dalit assertion and empowerment.

This book delves deep into Maoism's historical, social, and political dimensions in India

By Harsh Thakor* "Storming the Gates of Heaven" by Amit Bhattacharya is a comprehensive study of the Indian Maoist movement. Bhattacharya examines the movement's evolution, drawing from numerous sources and showcasing his unwavering support for Charu Mazumdar's path and practice. The book, published in 2016, delves deeply into the movement's historical, social, and political dimensions.

Ideological assault on dargah of Sufi Saint Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti will disturb pluralistic legacy: Modi told

Counterview Desk Letter to the Prime Minister about "a matter of the utmost concern affecting our country's social fabric": *** We are a group of independent citizens who over the past few years have made efforts to improve the deteriorating communal relations in the country. It is abundantly clear that over the last decade relations between communities, particularly Hindus and Muslims, and to an extent Christians are extremely strained leaving these latter two communities in extreme anxiety and insecurity.

Defeat of martial law: Has the decisive moment for change come in South Korea?

By Steven Lee Late at night on December 3, soldiers stormed into South Korea’s National Assembly in armored vehicles and combat helicopters. Assembly staff desperately blocked their assault with fire extinguishers and barricades. South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol had just declared martial law to “ eliminate ‘anti-state’ forces .”

Search This Blog