Skip to main content

Indian economy’s illness 'severe, unusually so', situation 'puzzling and frustrating'

Arvind Subramanian, Josh Felman
Counterview Desk
In a fresh paper published by the Harvard University Center for International Development, “India’s Great Slowdown: What Happened? What’s the Way Out?”, Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic adviser to the Narendra Modi government, and Josh Felman, Director of JH Consulting, California, have said that “standard structural and cyclical factors cannot explain the long slowdown, followed by a sharp collapse.”
According to them, “In the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), two key drivers of growth decelerated. Export growth slowed sharply as world trade stagnated, while investment fell victim to a homegrown Balance Sheet crisis, which came in two waves. The first wave -- the Twin Balance Sheet crisis, encompassing banks and infrastructure companies -- arrived when the infrastructure projects started during India’s investment boom of the mid-2000s began to go sour.”
While admitting that “the economy nonetheless continued to grow, despite temporary, adverse demonetization and GST shocks, propelled first by income gains from the large fall in international oil prices, then by government spending and a non-bank financial company (NBFC)-led credit boom”, the paper states, inflating bubble “finally burst in 2019”, as could be seen in consumption getting “sputtered, causing growth to collapse.”

Excerpt:

Seemingly suddenly, India’s economy has taken ill. The official numbers are worrisome enough, showing that growth slowed in the second quarter of this fiscal year to just 4.5 percent, the worst for a long time. But the disaggregated data are even more distressing. The growth of consumer goods production has virtually ground to a halt; production of investment goods is falling (Figure 1a). Indicators of exports, imports, and government revenues are all close to negative territory (Figure 1b).
These indicators suggest the economy’s illness is severe, unusually so. In fact, if one compares the indicators for the first seven months of this year with two previous episodes, the current slowdown seems closer to the 1991 balance of payment crisis (not in the conventional macro-economic stability sense but in terms of the real economy) than the 2000-02 recession (Figure 2a). Electricity generation figures suggest an even grimmer diagnosis: growth is feeble, worse than it was in 1991 or indeed at any other point in the past three decades.1 Clearly, this is not an ordinary slowdown. It is India’s Great Slowdown, where the economy seems headed for the intensive care unit.
The situation is puzzling and frustrating in equal measure. Puzzling because until recently India’s economy had seemed in perfect health, growing according to the official numbers at around 7 percent, the fastest rate of any major economy in the world. Nor has the economy been hit by any of the standard triggers of slowdowns, what Harish Damodaran has called the 3 Fs. Food harvests haven’t failed. World fuel prices haven’t risen. The fisc has not spiraled out of control. So, what has happened—why have things suddenly gone wrong?
Various answers to this question have been proposed; there seem to be as many explanations as analysts. Yet the very number of answers hints at the problem, namely that none of the explanations seems satisfying. Commentators point to various flaws in India’s economy, but the economy has always had flaws, and only rarely have they led to predicaments like the current situation.
At the same time, there is frustration. The government and RBI have been trying vigorously to bring the economy back to health. Every few weeks they announce new measures, some of them quite major. Most notably, the government has introduced a large corporate tax cut, perhaps the most sweeping corporate measure ever, in the hopes of reviving investment; and recently it announced a plan to privatize four major public sector undertakings (PSUs). 
Meanwhile, the RBI cut interest rates by a cumulative 135 basis points during 2019, more than any other central bank in the world over the period and one of the largest rate reductions in India’s history, in the hopes of reviving lending. But lending continues to decelerate, and investment remains mired in its slump.
Hence, the current predicament. It is not obvious what more can be done to remedy the downturn, especially because it is still unclear what has caused it. Yet one cannot just accept the current situation; a remedy must be found. Accordingly, this paper attempts to make a contribution. It offers a different diagnosis of the problem, and provides a prescription, identifying a path that could lead the economy out of the current slowdown.
Our thesis can be summarized briefly. India’s economy has been weighed down by both structural and cyclical factors, with finance as the distinctive, unifying element. India is suffering from a Balance Sheet crisis, a crisis that has arrived in two waves. The first wave -- the Twin Balance Sheet crisis, encompassing banks and infrastructure companies -- arrived after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), when the world economy slowed and the infrastructure projects started during India’s investment boom of the mid-2000s began to go sour. These problems were not addressed adequately, causing investment and exports, the two engines propelling rapid growth, to sputter.
*For the period April-October 2019 compared to the same period in 2018
But the economy was still able to achieve reasonable growth, on the back of a series of temporary expedients: initially, a large windfall from the precipitous fall in international oil prices; later, an NBFC credit boom accompanied by a large but hidden fiscal stimulus. It is the end of this credit boom beginning late 2018 that has led to the current predicament. All major engines of growth, this time also including consumption, have sputtered, causing growth to collapse.
With growth collapsing, India is now facing a Four Balance Sheet challenge -- the original two sectors, plus NBFCs and real estate companies. In this situation, the standard remedies are no longer available. Monetary policy cannot revive the economy because the transmission mechanism is broken. Fiscal policy cannot be used because the financial system would have difficulty absorbing the large bond issues that stimulus would entail. The traditional structural reform agenda -- land and labour market measures -- will not address the current problems.
Yet something must be done to get India out of its current vicious cycle, in which low growth is further damaging balance sheets, and deteriorating balance sheets are bringing down growth. In fact, there is only one way out, difficult and slow as it may be. The Four Balance Sheet problem must finally be addressed decisively. Until and unless this is done, the economy will not really recover on a sustainable basis. This argument is not new; it has been made before, in the Economic Survey 2017. But it is even more true today. 
---
Click HERE to download paper

Comments

TRENDING

Aurangzeb’s last will recorded by his Maulvi: Allah shouldn't make anyone emperor

By Mohan Guruswamy  Aurangzeb’s grave is a simple slab open to the sky lying along the roadside at Khuldabad near Aurangabad. I once stopped by to marvel at the tomb of an Emperor of India whose empire was as large as Ashoka the Great's. It was only post 1857 when Victoria's domain exceeded this. The epitaph reads: "Az tila o nuqreh gar saazand gumbad aghniyaa! Bar mazaar e ghareebaan gumbad e gardun bas ast." (The rich may well construct domes of gold and silver on their graves. For the poor folks like me, the sky is enough to shelter my grave) The modest tomb of Aurangzeb is perhaps the least recognised legacies of the Mughal Emperor who ruled the land for fifty eventful years. He was not a builder having expended his long tenure in war and conquest. Towards the end of his reign and life, he realised the futility of it all. He wrote: "Allah should not make anyone an emperor. The most unfortunate person is he who becomes one." Aurangzeb’s last will was re...

Beyond his riding skill, Karl Umrigar was admired for his radiance, sportsmanship, and affability

By Harsh Thakor*  Karl Umrigar's name remains etched in the annals of Indian horse racing, a testament to a talent tragically cut short. An accident on the racetrack at the tender age of nineteen robbed India of a rider on the cusp of greatness. Had he survived, there's little doubt he would have ascended to international stature, possibly becoming the greatest Indian jockey ever. Even 46 years after his death, his name shines brightly, reminiscent of an inextinguishable star. His cousin, Pesi Shroff, himself blossomed into one of the most celebrated jockeys in Indian horse racing.

PUCL files complaint with SC against Gujarat police, municipal authorities for 'unlawful' demolitions, custodial 'violence'

By A Representative   The People's Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL) has lodged a formal complaint with the Chief Justice of India, urging the Supreme Court to initiate suo-moto contempt proceedings against the police and municipal authorities in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. The complaint alleges that these officials have engaged in unlawful demolitions and custodial violence, in direct violation of a Supreme Court order issued in November 2024.

How the slogan Jai Bhim gained momentum as movement of popularity and revolution

By Dr Kapilendra Das*  India is an incomprehensible plural country loaded with diversities of religions, castes, cultures, languages, dialects, tribes, societies, costumes, etc. The Indians have good manners/etiquette (decent social conduct, gesture, courtesy, politeness) that build healthy relationships and take them ahead to life. In many parts of India, in many situations, and on formal occasions, it is common for people of India to express and exchange respect, greetings, and salutation for which we people usually use words and phrases like- Namaskar, Namaste, Pranam, Ram Ram, Jai Ram ji, Jai Sriram, Good morning, shubha sakal, Radhe Radhe, Jai Bajarangabali, Jai Gopal, Jai Jai, Supravat, Good night, Shuvaratri, Jai Bhole, Salaam walekam, Walekam salaam, Radhaswami, Namo Buddhaya, Jai Bhim, Hello, and so on. A soft attitude always creates strong relationships. A relationship should not depend only on spoken words. They should rely on understanding the unspoken feeling too. So w...

Haven't done a good deed, inner soul is cursing me as sinner: Aurangzeb's last 'will'

Counterview Desk The Tomb of Aurangzeb, the last of the strong Mughal emperors, located in Khuldabad, Aurangabad district, Maharashtra, has this epitaph inscribed on it: "Az tila o nuqreh gar saazand gumbad aghniyaa! Bar mazaar e maa ghareebaan gumbad e gardun bas ast" (the rich may well construct domes of gold and silver on their graves. For the poor folks like me, the sky is enough to shelter my grave).

CPM’s evaluation of BJP reflects its political character and its reluctance to take on battle against neo-fascism

By Harsh Thakor*  A controversial debate has emerged in the revolutionary camp regarding the Communist Party of India (Marxist)'s categorization of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Many Communists criticize the CPM’s reluctance to label the BJP as a fascist party and India as a fascist state. Various factors must be considered to arrive at an accurate assessment. Understanding the original meaning and historical development of fascism is essential, as well as analyzing how it manifests in the present global and national context.

State Human Rights Commission directs authorities to uphold environmental rights in Vadodara's Vishwamitri River Project

By A Representative  The Gujarat State Human Rights Commission (GSHRC) has ordered state and Vadodara municipal authorities to strictly comply with environmental and human rights safeguards during the Vishwamitri River Rejuvenation Project, stressing that the river’s degradation disproportionately affects marginalized communities and violates citizens’ rights to a healthy environment.  The Commission mandated an immediate halt to ecologically destructive practices, rehabilitation of affected communities, transparent adherence to National Green Tribunal (NGT) orders, and public consultations with experts and residents.   The order follows the Concerned Citizens of Vadodara coalition—environmentalists, ecologists, and urban planners—submitting a detailed letter to authorities, amplifying calls for accountability. The group warned that current plans to “re-section” and “desilt” the river contradict the NGT’s 2021 Vishwamitri River Action Plan, which prioritizes floodpla...

How polarization between different ideological trends within the communist movement sharpened in India

By Harsh Thakor*  This article is a rejoinder to A Note on Slogans of “Left Unity,” “Unity of the Communist Revolutionaries” and “Mass Line” by Umair Ahmed, published on the Nazariya blog .

Vadodara citizens urge authorities to adhere to environmental mandates in Vishwamitri River Rejuvenation Project

By A Representative   A coalition of environmental activists, ecologists, and urban planners in Vadodara has issued an urgent appeal to state and municipal authorities, demanding strict compliance with court-mandated guidelines for the upcoming Vishwamitri River rejuvenation project. Scheduled to commence in March 2025, the initiative aims to mitigate flooding and restore the river, but citizens warn that current plans risk violating National Green Tribunal (NGT) orders and jeopardizing the river’s fragile ecosystem, home to endangered species like crocodiles and Indian Softshell Turtles.  

Implications of deaths of Maoist leaders G. Renuka and Ankeshwarapu Sarayya in Chhattisgarh

By Harsh Thakor*  In the wake of recent security operations in southern Chhattisgarh, two senior Maoist leaders, G. Renuka and Ankeshwarapu Sarayya, were killed. These operations, which took place amidst a historically significant Maoist presence, resulted in the deaths of 31 individuals on March 20th and 16 more three days prior.