IIM-A survey: Inflation, rising costs begin to worry Indian business houses, even as profits start looking up

Perception of inflation

By Our Representative
The Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad's (IIM-A's) latest Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES), based on responses from 1,941 companies, seeking answers the perceptions on business over the next one year, has said that, while there are signs of improved profit margins in April 2018, "One year ahead business inflation expectation in April 2018 is placed at 4.21%, showing a sharp increase from 3.73% , observed in March 2018."
Pointing out that "the uncertainty of business inflation expectations in April 2018 has increased to 2.24% (from 1.99% in March 2018)", the survey report, released by the top-notch business institute on Monday, underlines, "Businesses in April 2018 expect one year ahead Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline inflation to be 4.67%", which, it believes, is "significantly up from 4.1% observed in February 2018."
At the same reporting thst the business environment appears to be lookin up, the report states, "Responses of 41% of the firms in the sample in April 2018 indicate ‘much less than normal’ profit margin, down from March 2018 level", adding, "Also proportion of firms reporting ‘normal or above normal’ profit has gone up to 35% in April 2018."

Sales levels

Noting that "overall perception of firms shows that there are signs of improved profit margins in April 2018", the report defines "normal" to mean "the average level obtained in the preceding three years."
Coming to sales, the report says, "Around 46% of the firms in the sample reported that sales are ‘normal or greater than normal’ in April 2018", suggesting that "this proportion has increased in April 2018", adding as for cost perceptions, "around 57% of the firms in April 2018 reported that increase in costs" an increase of 3% during the last one year. "The proportion of firms perceiving significant cost increase has gone up sharply to 33% in April 2018", the report adds.
Explaining the suevey, the IIM-A, in a release, said, "The Business Inflation Expectations Survey provides ways to examine the amount of slack in the economy by polling a panel of business leaders about their inflation expectations in the short and medium term." A monthly survey, it "asks questions about year-ahead cost expectations and the factors influencing price changes, such as profit, sales levels, etc."

Cost per unit

Calling the survey "unique", IIM-A says, "The survey is unique in that it goes straight to businesses, the price setters, rather than to consumers or households, to understand their expectations of the price level changes", adding, "One major advantage of BIES is that one can get a probabilistic assessment of inflation expectations and thus can get a measure of uncertainty."
IIM-A further says, the survey "provides an indirect assessment of overall demand condition of the economy", claiming that it's results "useful in understanding the inflation expectations of business and complement other macro data required for policy making."

Comments

70,000 migrants, sold on Canadian dream, face uncertain future: Canada reinvents the xenophobic wheel

By Saurav Sarkar* Bikram Singh is running out of time on his post-study work visa in Canada. Singh is one of about 70,000 migrants who were sold on the Canadian dream of eventually making the country their home but now face an uncertain future with their work permits set to expire by December 2024. They came from places like India, China, and the Philippines, and sold their land and belongings in their home countries, took out loans, or made other enormous commitments to get themselves to Canada.

Kerala government data implicates the Covid vaccines for excess deaths

By Bhaskaran Raman* On 03 Dec 2024, Mr Unnikrishnan of the Indian Express had written an article titled: “Kerala govt data busts vaccine death myth; no rise in mortality post-Covid”. It claims “no significant change in the death rate in the 35-44 age group between 2019 and 2023”. However, the claim is obviously wrong, even to a casual observer, as per the same data which the article presents, as explained below.

PM-JUGA: Support to states and gram sabhas for the FRA implementation and preparation and execution of CFR management plan

By Dr. Manohar Chauhan* (Over the period, under 275(1), Ministry of Tribal Affairs has provided fund to the states for FRA implementation. Besides, some states like Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra allocated special fund for FRA implementation. Now PM-JUDA under “Dharti Aaba Janjatiya Gram Utkarsh Abhiyan(DAJGUA) lunched by Prime Minister on 2nd October 2024 will not only be the major source of funding from MoTA to the States/UTs, but also will be the major support to the Gram sabha for the preparation and execution of CFR management Plan).

Operation Kagar represents Indian state's intensified attempt to extinguish Maoism: Resistance continues

By Harsh Thakor Operation Kagar represents the Indian state's intensified attempt to extinguish Maoism, which claims to embody the struggles and aspirations of Adivasis. Criminalized by the state, the Maoists have been portrayed as a threat, with Operation Kagar deploying strategies that jeopardize their activities. This operation weaves together economic, cultural, and political motives, allegedly with drone attacks on Adivasi homes.

How Amit Shah's statement on Ambedkar reflects frustration of those uncomfortable with Dalit assertion, empowerment

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* Dr. B.R. Ambedkar remains the liberator and emancipator of India’s oppressed communities. However, attempts to box him between two Brahmanical political parties betray a superficial and self-serving understanding of his legacy. The statement by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in the Rajya Sabha was highly objectionable, reflecting the frustration of those uncomfortable with Dalit assertion and empowerment.

This book delves deep into Maoism's historical, social, and political dimensions in India

By Harsh Thakor* "Storming the Gates of Heaven" by Amit Bhattacharya is a comprehensive study of the Indian Maoist movement. Bhattacharya examines the movement's evolution, drawing from numerous sources and showcasing his unwavering support for Charu Mazumdar's path and practice. The book, published in 2016, delves deeply into the movement's historical, social, and political dimensions.

Ideological assault on dargah of Sufi Saint Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti will disturb pluralistic legacy: Modi told

Counterview Desk Letter to the Prime Minister about "a matter of the utmost concern affecting our country's social fabric": *** We are a group of independent citizens who over the past few years have made efforts to improve the deteriorating communal relations in the country. It is abundantly clear that over the last decade relations between communities, particularly Hindus and Muslims, and to an extent Christians are extremely strained leaving these latter two communities in extreme anxiety and insecurity.

Balod tech fest tests students’ interest in innovative ideas in the fields of science, engineering, start-ups

By Our Representative A techno fest scheduled on December 20 and 21 in Balod district of Chhattisgarh will test the innovative ideas of school students in the fields of science, engineering and start-ups. For this two-day fest organised at Maheswari Bhawan of the district, a total of 824 models made by students were initially registered. Out of those, a selection committee chose 200 models from several schools spread over five blocks of Balod. These will be on display on these two days from 10am to 4.30pm. Out of many ideas, one of the most interesting models is a smart glove which can be used by children with impairments and disabilities. For those who cannot speak at all or have speech difficulty, they can ask for help from caregivers by pressing their fingers on the glove after wearing it. This will attract attention.

Search This Blog