Setback to NDA's "reforms" agenda? Five state elections will not change Rajya Sabha numbers for BJP

By Our Representative
The BJP may have won Assam for the first time with a handsome margin, but its dream of having a majority in the Rajya Sabha, considered crucial for the party to push what it interprets as "economic reforms", is unlikely to materialize before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
A report by a data analysis site, has said, the elections to the five assembly seats -- Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Poducherry, "will not have a significant impact on the numbers in the Rajya Sabha."
The analysis says, "The NDA cannot expect to gain even a single seat in the Rajya Sabha from these five states, before the 2019 Lok Sabha election", adding, as for the UPA, it "will lose two seats, and other parties will gain two seats from these states by 2019."
The analysis admits, "Though the BJP won the 2014 Lok Sabha election with a clear majority, it has been finding it difficult to pass bills in the Upper House or the Rajya Sabha."
One of the most crucial bills it had to drop because of lack of numbers in Rajya Sabha was an amendment to the Land Acquisition Act, 2013, in order to allow quick disbursement of agricultural land to industry. Another important bill pending nod is the Goods and Services Tax bill.
The analysis, by Rakesh Dubbudu, says, "Since the Rajya Sabha members are elected by the MLAs in states, Congress had better numbers in 2014 to start with. The Rajya Sabha members are elected by the method of proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote (STV)."

He adds, "Each state has a fixed number of Rajya Sabha seats. Members keep retiring after their 6 year tenure and elections take place as and when there is a vacancy."
Today, out of the 241 members of the Rajya Sabha, 70 belong to the UPA, 66 to the NDA, 96 to others, and 9 are nominated. The bulk of the others come from the regional parties like SP, BSP, AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, BJD, JD(U), CPI(M) etc.
A state wise analysis of the five states which went to the polls suggests that Kerala sends 9 members to the Rajya Sabha. "Out of the 9, three are due to retire in July 2018 while the rest of the six will retire after 2020", the analysis states. Of these three, two are held by the UPA while one is held by others (LDF).
"Based on the current results, the UPA will be able to retain only 1 seat while others (LDF) will win two seats", the analysis says, adding, "Thus, the net change before the 2019 Lok Sabha Election will be UPA (-1), Others (+1)."
As for Tamil Nadu, the analysis says, it sends "18 members to the Rajya Sabha. Only 4 of those seats will see a re-election before the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Three of the 4 seats are currently held by the UPA while one is held by others (AIADMK). Based on current results, UPA will be able to retain only 2 out of the 4 seats while others (AIADMK) will win the rest of the two seats."
The net change, here, before 2019 Lok Sabha elections will be "UPA (-1), Others (+1)", the analysis says.
Puducherry sends just one member to the Rajya Sabha who is currently from AIADMK. "His term ends in 2021. Hence there will be no change in the numbers before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections", the analysis says.
As for West Bengal, it sends 16 members to the Rajya Sabha. "There will be two re-elections before the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The first one will be held for five seats in August 2017. Currently, only one of these seats is held by the UPA while the remaining four are held by Others (Trinamool Congress and CPM)", the analysis says.
It adds, "Based on the current results, four of them will be won by Trinamool Congress while the remaining seat can go to the Congress if the Left parties support it."
Further, "The second re-election will take place for 5 more seats in April 2018. Four of these are now held by the Trinamool Congress and the remaining is held by the CPI(M). Based on the current results, Trinamool Congress can easily retain the four and the fifth one might go to the Congress or the Left depending on their agreement", the analysis points out.
It adds, "In effect, there might not any change in the numbers at the national level."
Finally, coming to Assam, which send 7 members to the Rajya Sabha, the analysis says, "The nearest re-election will happen in June 2019, by when the 2019 Lok Sabha election will be over. Though the BJP led NDA will win a few seats after 2019, they cannot hope to gain any seat before the 2019 Lok Sabha election."
Thus, the analysis safely concludes, "While the Congress has lost both Kerala & Assam in these elections, it would not have a significant impact on the Rajya Sabha numbers from these five states."

Comments

Loktantra Bachao Abhiyan raises concerns over Jharkhand Adivasis' plight in Assam, BJP policies

By Our Representative The Loktantra Bachao Abhiyan (Save Democracy Campaign) has issued a pressing call to protect Adivasi rights in Jharkhand, highlighting serious concerns over the treatment of Jharkhandi Adivasis in Assam. During a press conference in Ranchi on November 9, representatives from Assam, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh criticized the current approach of BJP-led governments in these states, arguing it has exacerbated Adivasi struggles for rights, land, and cultural preservation.

Promoting love or instilling hate and fear: Why is RSS seeking a meeting with Rahul Gandhi?

By Ram Puniyani* India's anti-colonial struggle was marked by a diverse range of social movements, one of the most significant being Hindu-Muslim unity and the emergence of a unified Indian identity among people of all religions. The nationalist, anti-colonial movement championed this unity, best embodied by Mahatma Gandhi, who ultimately gave his life for this cause. Gandhi once wrote, “The union that we want is not a patched-up thing but a union of hearts... Swaraj (self-rule) for India must be an impossible dream without an indissoluble union between the Hindus and Muslims of India. It must not be a mere truce... It must be a partnership between equals, each respecting the religion of the other.”

Right-arm fast bowler who helped West Indies shape arguably greatest Test team in cricket history

By Harsh Thakor* Malcolm Marshall redefined what it meant to be a right-arm fast bowler, challenging the traditional laws of biomechanics with his unique skill. As we remember his 25th death anniversary on November 4th, we reflect on the legacy he left behind after his untimely death from colon cancer. For a significant part of his career, Marshall was considered one of the fastest and most formidable bowlers in the world, helping to shape the West Indies into arguably the greatest Test team in cricket history.

Andhra team joins Gandhians to protest against 'bulldozer action' in Varanasi

By Rosamma Thomas* November 1 marked the 52nd day of the 100-day relay fast at the satyagraha site of Rajghat in Varanasi, seeking the restoration of the 12 acres of land to the Sarva Seva Sangh, the Gandhian organization that was evicted from the banks of the river. Twelve buildings were demolished as the site was abruptly taken over by the government after “bulldozer” action in August 2023, even as the matter was pending in court.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual.

Will Left victory in Sri Lanka deliver economic sovereignty plan, go beyond 'tired' IMF agenda?

By Atul Chandra, Vijay Prashad* On September 22, 2024, the Sri Lankan election authority announced that Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) alliance won the presidential election. Dissanayake, who has been the leader of the left-wing JVP since 2014, defeated 37 other candidates, including the incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) and his closest challenger Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya.

Will Bangladesh go Egypt way, where military ruler is in power for a decade?

By Vijay Prashad* The day after former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka, I was on the phone with a friend who had spent some time on the streets that day. He told me about the atmosphere in Dhaka, how people with little previous political experience had joined in the large protests alongside the students—who seemed to be leading the agitation. I asked him about the political infrastructure of the students and about their political orientation. He said that the protests seemed well-organized and that the students had escalated their demands from an end to certain quotas for government jobs to an end to the government of Sheikh Hasina. Even hours before she left the country, it did not seem that this would be the outcome.

A Marxist intellectual who dwelt into complex areas of the Indian socio-political landscape

By Harsh Thakor* Professor Manoranjan Mohanty has been a dedicated advocate for human rights over five decades. His work as a scholar and activist has supported revolutionary democratic movements, navigating complex areas of the Indian socio-political landscape. His balanced, non-partisan approach to human rights and social justice has made his books essential resources for advocates of democracy.

Tributes paid to pioneer of Naxalism in Punjab, who 'dodged' police for 60 yrs

By Harsh Thakor* Jagjit Singh Sohal, known as Comrade Sharma, a pioneer of Naxalism in Punjab, passed away on October 20 at the age of 96. Committed to the Naxalite cause and a prominent Maoist leader, Sohal, who succeeded Charu Majumdar, played hide and seek with the police for almost six decades. He was cremated in Patiala.

Search This Blog